论文标题
危地马拉的暴力行为推动成年人和儿童在墨西哥寻求工作
Violence in Guatemala pushes adults and children to seek work in Mexico
论文作者
论文摘要
本文估计，在2009年至2017年期间，暴力行为对从危地马拉到墨西哥的移民穿越的影响。为了识别因果关系，我们用作危地马拉森林砍伐的变化以及哥伦比亚可卡因的夺取。我们认为，危地马拉的犯罪组织为危地马拉的土地辩护，加剧了暴力并导致移民，尤其是在对可卡因的外源供应冲击期间。危地马拉市政当局和墨西哥之间的凶杀率差异的单点增加，导致男性成年人进行了211次移民横梁。暴力行为的崛起也导致了儿童进行的20个额外的移民交叉口。
This article estimates the impact of violence on emigration crossings from Guatemala to Mexico as final destination during 2009-2017. To identify causal effects, we use as instruments the variation in deforestation in Guatemala, and the seizing of cocaine in Colombia. We argue that criminal organizations deforest land in Guatemala, fueling violence and leading to emigration, particularly during exogenous supply shocks to cocaine. A one-point increase in the homicide rate differential between Guatemalan municipalities and Mexico, leads to 211 additional emigration crossings made by male adults. This rise in violence, also leads to 20 extra emigration crossings made by children.
