论文标题
动物运动行为反应的连续时间建模
Continuous-time modelling of behavioural responses in animal movement
论文作者
论文摘要
人们对生态学有很大的兴趣了解野生动物如何受到人为障碍的影响,例如声音。行为反应研究是量化海军活动对海洋哺乳动物的影响的重要方法。进行受控的暴露实验,在暴露于受控声源之前,期间和之后对动物的行为进行量化,通常使用遥测标签(例如,加速度计或卫星跟踪器)。需要统计建模才能在暴露前后正式比较模式,以量化与基线行为的偏差。我们提出了不同的随机微分方程(SDE)作为一个灵活的框架,以模拟此类数据,并使用两个组件进行建模:(1)时变的基线动力学,以非参数或随机效应对时间变化的协变量和(2)捕获基线的非参数响应模型的非参数或随机效应。 SDE在连续时间内指定,这使得分析以不规则时间间隔收集的数据是一个直接的,这是动物跟踪研究的常见情况。我们描述了如何将模型嵌入状态空间建模框架中以说明测量误差。我们提出了用于模型拟合,模型检查和不确定性定量的推论方法(包括响应模型)。我们将这种方法应用于喙鲸的两个行为响应研究数据集:卫星轨道和高分辨率深度数据。我们的结果表明,接触声源后,鲸鱼的水平运动和垂直潜水行为发生了变化,未来的工作应评估这些反应的严重性和可能后果。这两个截然不同的示例展示了不同coeff的SDE的多功能性以衡量行为的变化,我们讨论了干扰对鲸鱼能量平衡的影响。
There is great interest in ecology to understand how wild animals are affected by anthropogenic disturbances, such as sounds. Behavioural response studies are an important approach to quantify the impact of naval activity on marine mammals. Controlled exposure experiments are undertaken where the behaviour of animals is quantified before, during, and after exposure to a controlled sound source, often using telemetry tags (e.g., accelerometers, or satellite trackers). Statistical modelling is required to formally compare patterns before and after exposure, to quantify deviations from baseline behaviour. We propose varying-coefficient stochastic differential equations (SDEs) as a flexible framework to model such data, with two components: (1) time-varying baseline dynamics, modelled with non-parametric or random effects of time-varying covariates, and (2) a non-parametric response model, which captures deviations from baseline. SDEs are specified in continuous time, which makes it straightforward to analyse data collected at irregular time intervals, a common situation for animal tracking studies. We describe how the model can be embedded into a state-space modelling framework to account for measurement error. We present inferential methods for model fitting, model checking, and uncertainty quantification (including on the response model). We apply this approach to two behavioural response study data sets on beaked whales: a satellite track, and high-resolution depth data. Our results suggest that the whales' horizontal movement and vertical diving behaviour changed after exposure to the sound source, and future work should evaluate the severity and possible consequences of these responses. These two very different examples showcase the versatility of varying-coefficient SDEs to measure changes in behaviour, and we discuss implications of disturbances for the whales' energetic balance.