论文标题
了解通货膨胀的食物组成部分
Understanding the food component of inflation
论文作者
论文摘要
本文在过去30年中根据35个国家的小组提出了证据，即菲利普斯曲线关系为食品通货膨胀提供。也就是说，更广泛的经济过热确实以系统的方式推动了CPI的食物组成部分。此外，专业预测者的一般通货膨胀预期显然会影响食品价格通胀。该分析还量化了较高的粮食生产和进口或降低食品出口的程度，从而减少了粮食通货膨胀。重要的是，国内和全球食品价格之间的联系通常很弱，在考虑汇率变化后，一年内的转变范围从0.07到0.16不等。
This article presents evidence based on a panel of 35 countries over the past 30 years that the Phillips curve relation holds for food inflation. That is, broader economic overheating does push up the food component of the CPI in a systematic way. Further, general inflation expectations from professional forecasters clearly impact food price inflation. The analysis also quantifies the extent to which higher food production and imports, or lower food exports, reduce food inflation. Importantly, the link between domestic and global food prices is typically weak, with passthroughs within a year ranging from 0.07 to 0.16, after exchange rate variations are taken into account.
