论文标题
概率机器学习基于动态系统的基于预测性和可解释的数字双胞胎
Probabilistic machine learning based predictive and interpretable digital twin for dynamical systems
论文作者
论文摘要
提出了一个用于创建和更新基于物理功能库的动态系统的数字双胞胎的框架。稀疏的贝叶斯机器学习用于更新和得出数字双胞胎的可解释表达式。提出了两种更新数字双胞胎的方法。第一种方法可以利用动态系统的输入和输出信息,而第二种方法则利用仅输出观察来更新数字双胞胎。两种方法都使用代表某些物理学的候选功能库来推断现有数字双胞胎模型中的新扰动项。在这两种情况下,更新的数字双胞胎的结果表达都是相同的,此外,认识论的不确定性得到量化。在第一种方法中,回归问题来自状态空间模型,而在后一种情况下,仅输出信息被视为随机过程。 ITôCilculus和Kramers-Moyal扩展的概念被用来得出回归方程。使用高度非线性动力学系统(例如裂解问题)证明了所提出的方法的性能。本文中证明的数值结果几乎准确地确定了正确的扰动项及其在动态系统中的相关参数。所提出方法的概率性质还有助于量化与更新模型相关的不确定性。所提出的方法提供了数字双胞胎模型中扰动的确切且可解释的描述,该模型可直接用于更好的网络物理整合,长期未来预测,降级监测和模型 - 非局部控制。
A framework for creating and updating digital twins for dynamical systems from a library of physics-based functions is proposed. The sparse Bayesian machine learning is used to update and derive an interpretable expression for the digital twin. Two approaches for updating the digital twin are proposed. The first approach makes use of both the input and output information from a dynamical system, whereas the second approach utilizes output-only observations to update the digital twin. Both methods use a library of candidate functions representing certain physics to infer new perturbation terms in the existing digital twin model. In both cases, the resulting expressions of updated digital twins are identical, and in addition, the epistemic uncertainties are quantified. In the first approach, the regression problem is derived from a state-space model, whereas in the latter case, the output-only information is treated as a stochastic process. The concepts of Itô calculus and Kramers-Moyal expansion are being utilized to derive the regression equation. The performance of the proposed approaches is demonstrated using highly nonlinear dynamical systems such as the crack-degradation problem. Numerical results demonstrated in this paper almost exactly identify the correct perturbation terms along with their associated parameters in the dynamical system. The probabilistic nature of the proposed approach also helps in quantifying the uncertainties associated with updated models. The proposed approaches provide an exact and explainable description of the perturbations in digital twin models, which can be directly used for better cyber-physical integration, long-term future predictions, degradation monitoring, and model-agnostic control.