论文标题
NetPred:基于网络的建模和多个连接市场指数的预测
NETpred: Network-based modeling and prediction of multiple connected market indices
论文作者
论文摘要
市场预测在支持财务决策中起着重要作用。该领域的一种新兴方法是使用图形建模和分析来预测下一个市场指数波动。该领域中的一个重要问题是如何构建数据的适当图形模型,该模型可以由半监督的GNN有效地使用,以预测索引波动。在本文中,我们介绍了一个名为Netpred的框架,该框架通过使用多种股票储备和股票指数关系测量,生成一个新型的异质图,该图表代表多个相关指数及其股票。然后,它彻底选择了一组不同的代表节点,这些节点涵盖了状态空间的不同部分,并且其价格变动是可以准确预测的。通过将初始预测标签分配给这样的节点,NetPred确保可以使用半监督的学习过程成功训练后续的GCN模型。然后,将所得模型用于预测库存标签,这些库存标签最终被汇总以推断图中所有索引节点的标签。我们全面的实验集表明,在不同知名的数据集上,Netpred将最新基准的性能提高了3%-5%。
Market prediction plays a major role in supporting financial decisions. An emerging approach in this domain is to use graphical modeling and analysis to for prediction of next market index fluctuations. One important question in this domain is how to construct an appropriate graphical model of the data that can be effectively used by a semi-supervised GNN to predict index fluctuations. In this paper, we introduce a framework called NETpred that generates a novel heterogeneous graph representing multiple related indices and their stocks by using several stock-stock and stock-index relation measures. It then thoroughly selects a diverse set of representative nodes that cover different parts of the state space and whose price movements are accurately predictable. By assigning initial predicted labels to such a set of nodes, NETpred makes sure that the subsequent GCN model can be successfully trained using a semi-supervised learning process. The resulting model is then used to predict the stock labels which are finally aggregated to infer the labels for all the index nodes in the graph. Our comprehensive set of experiments shows that NETpred improves the performance of the state-of-the-art baselines by 3%-5% in terms of F-score measure on different well-known data sets.