论文标题
信任和时间偏好：在随机分配实验中测量因果效应
Trust and Time Preference: Measuring a Causal Effect in a Random-Assignment Experiment
论文作者
论文摘要
大量证据表明，一个国家的信任水平是其宏观经济增长的重要决定因素。在本文中，我们调查了一个信任可以支持经济绩效的渠道：通过耐心水平，也称为经济学文献中的时间偏好。在Gabaix和Laibson（2017）之后，我们首先认为，基于关于未来的嘈杂信号，可以将时间偏好建立为最佳的贝叶斯推断，以便它受到未来结果的可感知确定性的影响。利用神经科学文献，我们认为神经递质的催产素可以促进与信任和耐心联系起来的机制。一方面，它是信任行为的神经相关性。另一方面，它会影响大脑对预测错误的编码，因此可以增加对未来事件的神经表示的可感知确定性。信任和时间偏好之间的关系通过信任游戏对实验进行了测试。尽管本文没有发现信任对时间偏好或确定性水平的显着影响，但它提出了一种实验设计，可以成功地操纵人们的短期信任水平，以实验目的。
Large amounts of evidence suggest that trust levels in a country are an important determinant of its macroeconomic growth. In this paper, we investigate one channel through which trust might support economic performance: through the levels of patience, also known as time preference in the economics literature. Following Gabaix and Laibson (2017), we first argue that time preference can be modelled as optimal Bayesian inference based on noisy signals about the future, so that it is affected by the perceived certainty of future outcomes. Drawing on neuroscience literature, we argue that the mechanism linking trust and patience could be facilitated by the neurotransmitter oxytocin. On the one hand, it is a neural correlate of trusting behavior. On the other, it has an impact on the brain's encoding of prediction error, and could therefore increase the perceived certainty of a neural representation of a future event. The relationship between trust and time preference is tested experimentally using the Trust Game. While the paper does not find a significant effect of trust on time preference or the levels of certainty, it proposes an experimental design that can successfully manipulate people's short-term levels of trust for experimental purposes.
