论文标题
评估对原始优势比的对数正态分布假设：对点和间隔估计的影响
Assessing the Lognormal Distribution Assumption For the Crude Odds Ratio: Implications For Point and Interval Estimation
论文作者
论文摘要
粗几率比（ORCRUDE）的采样分布是具有参数Mu和Sigma的对数正态分布的假设，导致了错误的结论，即Orcrude对数的期望等于参数MU。实际上，EXP（MU）是对数正态分布的中位数，而不是平均值。如果获得了不同的参数作为对数正态分布的期望值，则该数量可用于获得真实优势比（ORTRUE）的新估计值。在这里，基于简单的随机临床试验研究设计进行模拟。该模拟表明，新的Ortrue的估计值（基于对数正态分布函数的期望）产生的间隔估计值，这些估计在统计学上比标准方法更有效。这些间隔估计值是通过参数引导方法和计算出的百分位方法获得的。估计置信区间的统计结论有效性基于预期的覆盖率概率（即置信区间包含ORTRUE的概率）。此外，基于改善的置信区间估计值的基于间隔的假设检验具有更高的拒绝假设的能力，即当替代假设是正确的（即，即在干预措施具有保护性时，Ortrue等于一个）。
The assumption that the sampling distribution of the crude odds ratio (ORcrude) is a log-normal distribution with parameters mu and sigma leads to the incorrect conclusion that the expectation of the log of ORcrude is equal to the parameter mu. In fact, exp(mu) is the median of the lognormal distribution, not the mean. If a different parameter is obtained as the expected value of the lognormal distribution, then this quantity can be used to obtain a new estimate of the true odds ratio (ORtrue). Here, simulations are conducted based on a simple randomized clinical trial study design. The simulations demonstrate that the new estimate of ORtrue (based on the expectation of the lognormal distribution function) yields interval estimates that are more statistically valid than the standard method. These interval estimates are obtained by both a parametric bootstrap method and a calculated percentile method. The statistical conclusion validity of the estimated confidence intervals are based on the intended coverage probability (ie the probability the confidence interval contains ORtrue). Additionally, an interval based hypothesis test based on the improved confidence interval estimate has higher power to reject the null hypothesis that ORtrue is equal to one when the alternative hypothesis is true (ie ORtrue is not equal to one) than the standard hypothesis test when the intervention is protective.
