论文标题
南非动力电网频率的随机性质
The stochastic nature of power-grid frequency in South Africa
论文作者
论文摘要
在这项工作中，我们探索了两种机制，这些机制解释了南非电网中电网频率记录的非高斯行为。我们利用fokker-Planck方法来进行动力网络频率，该方法在通用模型参数（例如惯性，阻尼和噪声幅度和噪声幅度和非参数估计）之间直接从功率网络频率记录中产生了直接关系。我们提出了两个解释南非的非高斯链球菌分布的解释：第一个基于电网频率记录中的乘法噪声，我们在南非观察到。第二个基于众所周知的计划和计划外的负载脱落和滚动停电，这些停电困扰了南非。首先，我们得出乘法噪声效应的分析表达，允许对所有统计矩进行估计，并与数据相比讨论缺点。第二次，我们使用南非模块化电网进行了简单的数值分析。这两种选项都有助于了解南非的电网频率的统计数据，尤其是尾巴的存在。
In this work, we explore two mechanisms that explain non-Gaussian behaviour of power-grid frequency recordings in the South African grid. We make use of a Fokker-Planck approach to power-grid frequency that yields a direct relation between common model parameters such as inertia, damping, and noise amplitude and non-parametric estimations of the same directly from power-grid frequency recordings. We propose two explanations for the non-Gaussian leptokurtic distributions in South Africa: The first based on multiplicative noise in power-grid frequency recordings, which we observe in South Africa; The second based on the well-known scheduled and unscheduled load shedding and rolling blackouts that beset South Africa. For the first we derive an analytic expression of the effects of multiplicative noise that permits the estimation of all statistical moments - and discuss drawbacks in comparison with the data; For the second we employ a simple numerical analysis with a modular power grid of South Africa. Both options help understand the statistics of power-grid frequency in South Africa - particularly the presence of heavy tails.
