论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
TNO or Comet? The Search for Activity and Characterization of Distant Object 418993 (2009 MS9)
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
2009 MS9 is a trans-Neptunian object (TNO) whose perihelion brings it close to the distance where some long period comets are seen to become active. Knowing this, and the fact that this object appears to brighten in excess of it's predicted nucleus brightness suggests that 2009 MS9 has a delayed onset of activity brought on by the sublimation of a species more volatile than water. In this paper we characterize 2009 MS9's physical properties and investigate potential outgassing through composite images, sublimation models, and measurements of spectral reflectivity. We find that deep composite images of the object at various epochs along its orbit show no evidence of dust yet place sensitive limits to the dust production. We estimate the nucleus radius to be 11.5 km $\pm 3.5$ km using thermal IR modeling from NEOWISE data and use this and data pre-perihelion to estimate a geometric albedo of 0.25. We compare a CO-sublimation activity model to its post perihelion heliocentric light curve and find this data supports an active fractional area of $5 \times 10^{-6}$ assuming 2 $μ$m sized grains and other typical comet parameters. The spectral reflectivity of the surface materials obtained with the Gemini Observatory and CFHT at different epochs shows a reddening spectral slope. We compare the physical properties of 2009 MS9 to both TNO and comet populations, and speculate that 2009 MS9's reddening may be due to the buildup of a dust mantle on the surface and could be an explanation of why TNOs exhibit a color bimodality.