论文标题

部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测

BIM can help decarbonize the construction sector: life cycle evidence from Pavement Management Systems

论文作者

de Bortoli, Anne, Baouch, Yacine, Masdan, Mustapha

论文摘要

储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。

Transforming the construction sector is key to reaching net-zero, and many stakeholders expect its decarbonization through digitalization. But no quantified evidence has been brought to date. We propose the first environmental quantification of the impact of Building Information Modeling (BIM) in the construction sector. Specifically, the direct and indirect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions generated by a monofunctional BIM to plan road maintenance, a Pavement Management System (PMS), are evaluated using field data from France. The related carbon footprints are calculated following a life cycle approach, using different sources of data, including ecoinvent v3.6, and the IPCC 2013 GWP 100a characterization factors. Three design-build-maintain pavement alternatives are compared: scenario 1 relates to a massive design and surface maintenance, scenario 2 to a progressive design and pre-planned structural maintenance, and scenario 3 to a progressive design and tailored structural maintenance supported by the PMS. First, results show negligible direct emissions due to the PMS existence: 0.02% of the life cycle emissions of scenario 3. Second, complementary sensitivity analyses show that using a PMS is climate-positive over the life cycle when pavement subgrade bearing capacity improves over time, and climate-neutral otherwise. The GHG emissions savings using BIM can reach up to 30% of the life cycle emissions compared to other scenarios, and 65% when restraining the scope to maintenance and rehabilitation and excluding original pavement construction. Third, the neutral effect of BIM in case of a deterioration of the bearing capacity of the subgrade may be explained by design practices and safety margins, that could be enhanced using BIM. Fourth, the decarbonization potential of a multifunctional BIM is discussed, and research perspectives are presented.

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