论文标题
用于建模导数的最佳插件高斯流程
Optimal plug-in Gaussian processes for modelling derivatives
论文作者
论文摘要
衍生物是在不明函数的变化率的广泛应用中的关键非参数功能。在贝叶斯范式中,高斯流程(GPS)通常被用作未知功能的灵活先验,并且可以说是许多领域中最受欢迎的工具之一。但是,对于使用GPS作为衍生物时的最佳建模策略和理论特性知之甚少。在本文中,我们通过用GP先验区分任何顺序的衍生物来研究插件策略。这种实际吸引人的插件GP方法先前被认为是次优和退化,但不一定是这种情况。我们为插件GPS提供后验收率,并确定它们非常适合衍生订单。我们表明,回归函数及其衍生物的后验度量不取决于衍生物的顺序,以最小值的最佳速率收敛至某些类别功能的对数因子。我们分析了基于经验贝叶斯的数据驱动的高参数调整方法,并表明它在保持计算效率的同时满足了最佳速率条件。据我们所知,本文在推断衍生功能的背景下为插件GPS提供了第一个积极的结果,并导致一种实际上简单的非参数贝叶斯方法,具有最佳和适应性的超级参数调整,以同时估计回归函数及其衍生词。模拟显示插件GP方法的有限样本性能。讨论了分析全球海平面上升的气候变化应用。
Derivatives are a key nonparametric functional in wide-ranging applications where the rate of change of an unknown function is of interest. In the Bayesian paradigm, Gaussian processes (GPs) are routinely used as a flexible prior for unknown functions, and are arguably one of the most popular tools in many areas. However, little is known about the optimal modelling strategy and theoretical properties when using GPs for derivatives. In this article, we study a plug-in strategy by differentiating the posterior distribution with GP priors for derivatives of any order. This practically appealing plug-in GP method has been previously perceived as suboptimal and degraded, but this is not necessarily the case. We provide posterior contraction rates for plug-in GPs and establish that they remarkably adapt to derivative orders. We show that the posterior measure of the regression function and its derivatives, with the same choice of hyperparameter that does not depend on the order of derivatives, converges at the minimax optimal rate up to a logarithmic factor for functions in certain classes. We analyze a data-driven hyperparameter tuning method based on empirical Bayes, and show that it satisfies the optimal rate condition while maintaining computational efficiency. This article to the best of our knowledge provides the first positive result for plug-in GPs in the context of inferring derivative functionals, and leads to a practically simple nonparametric Bayesian method with optimal and adaptive hyperparameter tuning for simultaneously estimating the regression function and its derivatives. Simulations show competitive finite sample performance of the plug-in GP method. A climate change application for analyzing the global sea-level rise is discussed.