论文标题

黑匣子模型的解释和人类的可解释性期望 - 在凶杀预测背景下的分析

Black Box Model Explanations and the Human Interpretability Expectations -- An Analysis in the Context of Homicide Prediction

论文作者

Ribeiro, José, Carneiro, Níkolas, Alves, Ronnie

论文摘要

基于可解释的人工智能(XAI)的策略促进了对黑匣子模型结果的更好的人类解释性。这打开了质疑XAI方法创建的解释是否满足人类期望的可能性。当前正在使用的XAI方法(CIU,Dalex,Eli5,Lofo,Shap和Skater)提供了各种形式的解释,包括功能相关性的全球排名,允许概述该模型的输入和输出。这些方法可提高模型的解释性,并以问题为基础的更大的解释性。本研究打算阐明XAI方法及其解释所产生的解释,解决了与凶杀预测有关的现实世界分类问题,已经被同行验证,复制了其拟议的黑匣子模型,并使用了6种不同的XAI方法来生成解释和6个不同的人类专家。通过计算相关性,比较分析和识别所产生特征的所有等级之间的关系来生成结果。已经发现,尽管这是一个难以解释的模型,但满足了人类专家的期望中有75%,XAI方法与人类专家的结果之间约有48%的一致性。结果允许回答以下问题:“不同的人类专家之间对解释产生的期望是否相似?”,“不同的XAI方法是否会对所提出的问题产生类似的解释?”,“ XAI方法产生的解释能否满足人类对解释的期望?

Strategies based on Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) have promoted better human interpretability of the results of black box models. This opens up the possibility of questioning whether explanations created by XAI methods meet human expectations. The XAI methods being currently used (Ciu, Dalex, Eli5, Lofo, Shap, and Skater) provide various forms of explanations, including global rankings of relevance of features, which allow for an overview of how the model is explained as a result of its inputs and outputs. These methods provide for an increase in the explainability of the model and a greater interpretability grounded on the context of the problem. Intending to shed light on the explanations generated by XAI methods and their interpretations, this research addresses a real-world classification problem related to homicide prediction, already peer-validated, replicated its proposed black box model and used 6 different XAI methods to generate explanations and 6 different human experts. The results were generated through calculations of correlations, comparative analysis and identification of relationships between all ranks of features produced. It was found that even though it is a model that is difficult to explain, 75\% of the expectations of human experts were met, with approximately 48\% agreement between results from XAI methods and human experts. The results allow for answering questions such as: "Are the Expectation of Interpretation generated among different human experts similar?", "Do the different XAI methods generate similar explanations for the proposed problem?", "Can explanations generated by XAI methods meet human expectation of Interpretations?", and "Can Explanations and Expectations of Interpretation work together?".

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