论文标题
我们需要谈论非概率样本
We need to talk about nonprobability samples
论文作者
论文摘要
在大多数情况下，概率抽样是确保无法进行完全普查的人口量的公正推断的唯一方法。但是，当我们进入“大数据”时代时，采样机制未知的非概率样本正在复兴。我们解释了为什么使用非概率样本会导致虚假结论，以及为什么看似很大的非概率样本（有效地）很小。我们还回顾了有关在生物多样性监测中使用非概率样本的最新争议。尽管有这些要点，但我们认为，只要对其局限性进行评估，减轻可能的情况并清楚地传达，则非概率样本可以有用。生态学家可以从其他学科中学到很多这些方面的学科。
In most circumstances, probability sampling is the only way to ensure unbiased inference about population quantities where a complete census is not possible. As we enter the era of 'big data', however, nonprobability samples, whose sampling mechanisms are unknown, are undergoing a renaissance. We explain why the use of nonprobability samples can lead to spurious conclusions, and why seemingly large nonprobability samples can be (effectively) very small. We also review some recent controversies surrounding the use of nonprobability samples in biodiversity monitoring. These points notwithstanding, we argue that nonprobability samples can be useful, provided that their limitations are assessed, mitigated where possible and clearly communicated. Ecologists can learn much from other disciplines on each of these fronts.
