论文标题

不受控制的火箭恢复产生的不必要的风险

Unnecessary risks created by uncontrolled rocket reentries

论文作者

Byers, Michael, Wright, Ewan, Boley, Aaron, Byers, Cameron

论文摘要

在2020年,超过60%的低地轨道发射导致一个或多个火箭尸体被遗弃在轨道上,并最终以不受控制的方式返回地球。当他们这样做时,其20%至40%的质量可以在大气再入的热量中生存。许多尚存的碎片足够沉重,可以对人们,陆上,海上和飞机构成严重的风险。 重新进入空间对象的可接受风险水平没有国际共识。有时这是一个争论的点,例如,当3月5日核心阶段长达20吨时,在2021年5月使不受控制的重新进入。一些监管机构,包括美国,法国和ESA,在重新进入空间对象中实现了10,000个可接受的伤人风险(即对人类生命的统计威胁)中的10,000个可接受的伤人风险(即对人类生活的统计威胁)。我们认为,这个阈值忽略了迅速增加的火箭发射的累积效应。它也无法解决低风险,高后果结果,例如火箭舞台坠入高密度的城市或大型客机。在后一种情况下,即使是一小块则可能造成数百人伤亡。更复杂的是,当遵守成本过多时,通常会忽略或免除阈值。 我们分析了从1992年至2021年重新进入大气的火箭物体,并建模相关的累积伤亡期望。然后,我们将这一趋势推断到不久的将来(2022-2032),为不受控制的火箭人体重新进入全球人群的潜在风险进行了建模。我们还分析了目前位于轨道并预计将很快脱离的火箭机构的人群,并发现风险分布显着加权到靠近赤道的纬度。这代表了主要太空国家对全球南部国家施加的伤亡风险的不成比例负担。

In 2020, over 60% of launches to low Earth orbit resulted in one or more rocket bodies being abandoned in orbit and eventually returning to Earth in an uncontrolled manner. When they do so, between 20 and 40% of their mass survives the heat of atmospheric reentry. Many of the surviving pieces are heavy enough to pose serious risks to people, on land, at sea, and in airplanes. There is no international consensus on the acceptable level of risk from reentering space objects. This is sometimes a point of contention, such as when a 20 tonne Long March 5B core stage made an uncontrolled reentry in May 2021. Some regulators, including the US, France, and ESA, have implemented a 1 in 10,000 acceptable casualty risk (i.e., statistical threat to human life) threshold from reentering space objects. We argue that this threshold ignores the cumulative effect of the rapidly increasing number of rocket launches. It also fails to address low risk, high consequence outcomes, such as a rocket stage crashing into a high-density city or a large passenger aircraft. In the latter case, even a small piece could cause hundreds of casualties. Compounding this, the threshold is frequently ignored or waived when the costs of adherence are deemed excessive. We analyse the rocket bodies that reentered the atmosphere from 1992 - 2021 and model the associated cumulative casualty expectation. We then extrapolate this trend into the near future (2022 - 2032), modelling the potential risk to the global population from uncontrolled rocket body reentries. We also analyse the population of rocket bodies that are currently in orbit and expected to deorbit soon, and find that the risk distribution is significantly weighted to latitudes close to the equator. This represents a disproportionate burden of casualty risk imposed on the countries of the Global South by major spacefaring countries.

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