论文标题
选择样品选择的概率：重新分析JóvenesenCción对形式的影响
Probability of Causation with Sample Selection: A Reanalysis of the Impacts of Jóvenes en Acción on Formality
论文作者
论文摘要
本文确定了有样本选择时因果关系的概率。我们表明，无论治疗状态如何，在始终被观察到的个体并在三个日益严格的假设集中得出急剧的界限，因果关系的概率得到了部分鉴定。第一组施加了外源治疗和单调样品选择机制。为了拧紧这些边界，第二组还施加了单调治疗响应假设，而第三组则另外施加了随机的优势假设。最后，我们使用哥伦比亚职业培训计划中的实验数据Jóvenesenacción来经验说明我们的方法的有用性。我们发现，在始终就业的妇女中，至少10.2％，最多13.4％由于该计划而过渡到正规劳动力市场。但是，我们的90％信号区域并不拒绝下限等于零的零假设。
This paper identifies the probability of causation when there is sample selection. We show that the probability of causation is partially identified for individuals who are always observed regardless of treatment status and derive sharp bounds under three increasingly restrictive sets of assumptions. The first set imposes an exogenous treatment and a monotone sample selection mechanism. To tighten these bounds, the second set also imposes the monotone treatment response assumption, while the third set additionally imposes a stochastic dominance assumption. Finally, we use experimental data from the Colombian job training program Jóvenes en Acción to empirically illustrate our approach's usefulness. We find that, among always-employed women, at least 10.2% and at most 13.4% transitioned to the formal labor market because of the program. However, our 90%-confidence region does not reject the null hypothesis that the lower bound is equal to zero.
