论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Dwarf galaxy archaeology from chemical abundances and star formation histories
论文作者
论文摘要
我们以银河系恒星光环(Gaia-sausage acceladus(GSE)和Wukong/LMS-1的形式建模了两个破坏矮星系的恒星丰度和年龄。使用统计上强大的似然函数,我们适合两个系统的单区域化学演化模型,并将两个系统的指数式插入历史记录到两个系统中,从而得出了$τ_\ text {in} = 1.01 \ pm 0.13 $ gyr for GSE的$τ_\ text {in} = 1.01 \ pm 0.13 $ gy for GSE for GSE和$τ_\ text} $τ_\ text {in} $ 3.08^3.08^3.08^3.08^3.08^3.08^3.19^= 3.08^3.19。 Wukong/LMS-1。 GSE为$τ_\ text {tot} = 5.40^{+0.32} _ { - 0.31} $ gyr形成星星,以$ \ sim $ \ sim $ 1.5-2 $ gyr的速度维持恒星形成后,将其首次进入乳milky Way $ \ sim $ \ sim $ sim $ 10 Gyr。我们的合身表明,星形持续了$τ_\ text {tot} = 3.36^{+0.55} _ { - 0.47} $ gyr in Wukong/lms-1,尽管我们的样本不包含任何年龄测量值。两者之间的进化参数的差异在定性上与趋势一致,其恒星质量$ m_ \ star $通过模拟和半分析模型的星系形成预测。我们的拟合方法仅基于来自进化轨道的泊松采样,并且不需要数据框架。我们通过针对模拟数据进行测试来证明其准确性,表明它可以准确恢复各种样本量($ 20 \ leq n \ leq 2000 $)和测量不确定性($ 0.01 \ leq leq fent){[$α$/fe] $/fe]},fe fe text $ fe/leq leq 0.0202002 σ_ {\ log_ {10}(\ text {age})} \ leq 1 $)。我们推断的流出质量加载因子的值合理匹配$η\ propto m_ \ star^{ - 1/3} $,如银河风模型所预测的。由于我们推导的通用性质,该可能性函数应适用于任何参数化的单区模型,并易于扩展到其他天体物理模型,这些模型可以预测某些观察到的空间中的轨道。
We model the stellar abundances and ages of two disrupted dwarf galaxies in the Milky Way stellar halo: Gaia-Sausage Enceladus (GSE) and Wukong/LMS-1. Using a statistically robust likelihood function, we fit one-zone models of galactic chemical evolution with exponential infall histories to both systems, deriving e-folding timescales of $τ_\text{in} = 1.01 \pm 0.13$ Gyr for GSE and $τ_\text{in} = 3.08^{+3.19}_{-1.16}$ Gyr for Wukong/LMS-1. GSE formed stars for $τ_\text{tot} = 5.40^{+0.32}_{-0.31}$ Gyr, sustaining star formation for $\sim$$1.5 - 2$ Gyr after its first infall into the Milky Way $\sim$10 Gyr ago. Our fit suggests that star formation lasted for $τ_\text{tot} = 3.36^{+0.55}_{-0.47}$ Gyr in Wukong/LMS-1, though our sample does not contain any age measurements. The differences in evolutionary parameters between the two are qualitatively consistent with trends with stellar mass $M_\star$ predicted by simulations and semi-analytic models of galaxy formation. Our fitting method is based only on poisson sampling from an evolutionary track and requires no binning of the data. We demonstrate its accuracy by testing against mock data, showing that it accurately recovers the input model across a broad range of sample sizes ($20 \leq N \leq 2000$) and measurement uncertainties ($0.01 \leq σ_\text{[$α$/Fe]}, σ_\text{[Fe/H]} \leq 0.5$; $0.02 \leq σ_{\log_{10}(\text{age})} \leq 1$). Our inferred values of the outflow mass-loading factor reasonably match $η\propto M_\star^{-1/3}$ as predicted by galactic wind models. Due to the generic nature of our derivation, this likelihood function should be applicable to one-zone models of any parametrization and easily extensible to other astrophysical models which predict tracks in some observed space.