论文标题
全球化和与国内劳动力成本的通货膨胀的解耦
Globalisation and the Decoupling of Inflation from Domestic Labour Costs
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提供了新型的系统越野证据，表明在近几十年来，国内劳动力市场与CPI通货膨胀之间的联系大大削弱。核心估计是，从国内劳动力成本变化到核心CPI通货膨胀的短期传球从1980年代的0.25降低到2010年代的0.02，而长期传球从0.36下降到0.03。我们表明，通行证中崩溃的时机与千年之交的10个主要制造业EME的进口渗透率急剧增加。这意味着增加了竞争和市场竞争性。除了贸易开放的程度外，我们还表明，通行的强度也取决于非线性的方式，这取决于平均通货膨胀水平。
We provide novel systematic cross-country evidence that the link between domestic labour markets and CPI inflation has weakened considerably in advanced economies during recent decades. The central estimate is that the short-run pass-through from domestic labour cost changes to core CPI inflation decreased from 0.25 in the 1980s to just 0.02 in the 2010s, while the long-run pass-through fell from 0.36 to 0.03. We show that the timing of the collapse in the pass-through coincides with a steep increase in import penetration from a group of 10 major manufacturing EMEs around the turn of the millennium. This signals increased competition and market contestability. Besides the extent of trade openness, we show that the intensity of the pass-through also depends in a non-linear way on the average level of inflation.
