论文标题
基于网络的SIS动力学中的准平台行为近似
Approximating quasi-stationary behaviour in network-based SIS dynamics
论文作者
论文摘要
随机易感性感染模型的确定性近似值通常会预测阈值高于阈值时稳定的地方性稳态。这可能很难与潜在的随机动力学联系起来,该动力学没有地方性稳态,但可以表现出近似稳定的行为。在这里,我们通过准平台(QSD)的定义将近似模型与随机动力学联系起来,该模型捕获了这种近似稳定的行为。我们开发了一个普通微分方程的系统,该系统近似于QSD中被感染个体的数量,以进行任意接触网络和参数值。当流行性水平较高时,这些QSD近似值与现有近似方法一致。但是,当我们接近流行阈值时,模型偏离了QSD和现有方法接近所有易感状态的模型。通过始终近似QSD,提出的方法提供了与随机模型的更强链接。
Deterministic approximations to stochastic Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible models typically predict a stable endemic steady-state when above threshold. This can be hard to relate to the underlying stochastic dynamics, which has no endemic steady-state but can exhibit approximately stable behaviour. Here we relate the approximate models to the stochastic dynamics via the definition of the quasi-stationary distribution (QSD), which captures this approximately stable behaviour. We develop a system of ordinary differential equations that approximate the number of infected individuals in the QSD for arbitrary contact networks and parameter values. When the epidemic level is high, these QSD approximations coincide with the existing approximation methods. However, as we approach the epidemic threshold, the models deviate, with these models following the QSD and the existing methods approaching the all susceptible state. Through consistently approximating the QSD, the proposed methods provide a more robust link to the stochastic models.