论文标题
将测试量纳入有效繁殖数动力学的估计中
Incorporating testing volume into estimation of effective reproduction number dynamics
论文作者
论文摘要
分支过程启发的模型被广泛用于估计有效的繁殖数 - 使用新病例计数的有效摘要统计数据描述了传染病爆发。案例数据是繁殖数量变化的实时指标，但要使用挑战，因为案例由于与新感染数量无关的因素而波动。我们开发了一种新模型，该模型将诊断测试的数量作为监视模型协变量。使用来自加利福尼亚州SARS-COV-2大流行的模拟数据和数据，我们证明，合并测试会导致对最先进的性能提高。
Branching process inspired models are widely used to estimate the effective reproduction number -- a useful summary statistic describing an infectious disease outbreak -- using counts of new cases. Case data is a real-time indicator of changes in the reproduction number, but is challenging to work with because cases fluctuate due to factors unrelated to the number of new infections. We develop a new model that incorporates the number of diagnostic tests as a surveillance model covariate. Using simulated data and data from the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in California, we demonstrate that incorporating tests leads to improved performance over the state-of-the-art.
