论文标题
传统燃油汽车（TFV）和新能量车辆（NEV）的未来：创造性破坏还是共存？
The Future of Traditional Fuel Vehicles (TFV) and New Energy Vehicles (NEV): Creative Destruction or Co-existence?
论文作者
论文摘要
近年来，新的能源车辆（NEV）正在迅速发展和商业化。尽管传统的燃油汽车（TFV）仍然占据市场的大部分份额，但人们普遍认为NEV更有效，更环保，并且具有更大的Schumpeter“创造性破坏”的潜力，这可能会导致汽车生产和消费的范式转移。但是，关于NEV技术和创新的研发瓶颈对NEV生产和未来不确定性的潜在环境影响的讨论较少。本文旨在提出一个基于Lux（1995）的建模框架，该框架研究了TFV和NEV的长期动态以及它们相关的环境外部性。我们认为，环境和技术政策将在确定其未来发展方面发挥关键作用。不断监测这两个部门的潜在环境影响并支持关键NEV技术的研发以及以先发制人的方式遏制其负面外部性，这一点至关重要。
There is a rapid development and commercialization of new Energy Vehicles (NEV) in recent years. Although traditional fuel vehicles (TFV) still occupy a majority share of the market, it is generally believed that NEV is more efficient, more environmental friendly, and has a greater potential of a Schumpeterian "creative destruction" that may lead to a paradigm shift in auto production and consumption. However, less is discussed regarding the potential environmental impact of NEV production and future uncertainty in R&D bottleneck of NEV technology and innovation. This paper aims to propose a modelling framework based on Lux (1995) that investigates the long-term dynamics of TFV and NEV, along with their associated environmental externality. We argue that environmental and technological policies will play a critical role in determining its future development. It is of vital importance to constantly monitor the potential environmental impact of both sectors and support the R&D of critical NEV technology, as well as curbing its negative externality in a preemptive manner.
