论文标题
金融火灾销售作为连续国家的复杂传染
Financial fire sales as continuous-state complex contagion
论文作者
论文摘要
金融系统中的交易活动创建了各种渠道,可以通过这些渠道传播的各种渠道。一个重要的传染渠道是金融火灾销售,银行失败导致资产价格由于资产清算而下跌,这又驱动了进一步的银行违约,从而触发了下一轮清算。该过程可以被视为复杂的传染性,但是它不能使用常规的二进制状态传染模型对其进行建模,因为存在代表资产价格的状态。在这里,我们开发了连续状态级联的阈值模型,其中每个节点的状态由真实值表示。我们表明,只要状态中等数量,连续状态被离散化的多状态传染模型的解决方案可以准确地复制模拟连续状态分布。这种离散化方法使我们能够利用近似主方程(AME)的功能来追踪违约银行的部分轨迹,并获得资产价格的分配,这些资产价格表征了资产 - 银行双党网络上火力销售动态的特征。我们使用有关交易所交易基金(ETF)中资产持有关系的实际数据检查了所提出方法的准确性。
Trading activities in financial systems create various channels through which systemic risk can propagate. An important contagion channel is financial fire sales, where a bank failure causes asset prices to fall due to asset liquidation, which in turn drives further bank defaults, triggering the next rounds of liquidation. This process can be considered as complex contagion, yet it cannot be modeled using the conventional binary-state contagion models because there is a continuum of states representing asset prices. Here, we develop a threshold model of continuous-state cascades in which the states of each node are represented by real values. We show that the solution of a multi-state contagion model, for which the continuous states are discretized, accurately replicates the simulated continuous state distribution as long as the number of states is moderately large. This discretization approach allows us to exploit the power of approximate master equations (AME) to trace the trajectory of the fraction of defaulted banks and obtain the distribution of asset prices that characterize the dynamics of fire sales on asset-bank bipartite networks. We examine the accuracy of the proposed method using real data on asset-holding relationships in exchange-traded funds (ETFs).