论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Sample Variance for Supernovae Distance Measurements and the Hubble tension
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
Recent local measurements of the Hubble constant made using supernovae have delivered a value that differs by $\sim$5$σ$ (statistical error) from predictions using the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB), or using Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) and Big-Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) constraints, which are themselves consistent. The effective volume covered by the supernovae is small compared to the other probes, and it is therefore interesting to consider whether sample variance (often also called cosmic variance) is a significant contributor to the offset. We consider four ways of calculating the sample variance: (i) perturbation theory applied to the luminosity distance, which is the most common method considered in the literature; (ii) perturbation of cosmological parameters, as is commonly used to alleviate super-sample covariance in sets of N-body simulations; (iii) a new method based on the variance between perturbed spherical top-hat regions; (iv) using numerical N-body simulations. All give consistent results showing that, for the Pantheon supernova sample, sample variance can only lead to fluctuations in $H_0$ of order $\pm1$ km s$^{-1}$Mpc$^{-1}$ or less. While this is not in itself a new result, the agreement between the methods used adds to its robustness. Furthermore, it is instructive to see how the different methods fit together. We also investigate the internal variance of the $H_{0}$ measurement using SH0ES and Pantheon data. By searching for an offset between measurements in opposite hemispheres, we find that the direction coincident with the CMB dipole has a higher $H_{0}$ measurement than the opposite hemisphere by roughly 4 km s$^{-1}$Mpc$^{-1}$. We compare this with a large number of simulations and find that the size of this asymmetry is statistically likely, but the preference of direction may indicate that further calibration is needed.