论文标题

风险偏好的进化合理性

Evolutionary rationality of risk preference

论文作者

Fan, Songjia, Tao, Yi, Li, Cong

论文摘要

选择塑造了各种行为,包括我们如何在不确定性下做出决定。从中反映出的风险态度应该简单,灵活但一致。在本文中,我们介入了进化动力学,以找到有关进化上优越的风险的决策规则,并发展了进化理性的理论。我们在决策过程中强调了选择强度和健身的重要性,以及它们在人类思想中的等效性,被称为注意力和元素拟合度。进化合理性的目标是元拟合度(或适应性)的几何平均值以及注意力度(或选择强度)的最大化是同一个人对不同事件和不同情况下的态度改变的关键。然后,提出了Allais悖论以表明进化合理性的应用,其中大多数人做出的异常选择可以通过注意力程度的简单变化来很好地证明。

Selection shapes all kinds of behaviors, including how we make decisions under uncertainty. The risk attitude reflected from it should be simple, flexible, yet consistent. In this paper we engaged evolutionary dynamics to find the decision making rule concerning risk that is evolutionarily superior, and developed the theory of evolutionary rationality. We highlight the importance of selection intensity and fitness, as well as their equivalents in the human mind, named as attention degree and meta-fitness, in the decision making process. Evolutionary rationality targets the maximization of the geometric mean of meta-fitness (or fitness), and attention degree (or selection intensity) holds the key in the change of attitude of the same individual towards different events and under varied situations. Then as an example, the Allais paradox is presented to show the application of evolutionary rationality, in which the anomalous choices made by the majority of people can be well justified by a simple change in the attention degree.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源