论文标题

使用内核密度估算来了解橄榄球联盟进攻财产的空间趋势

Use of Kernel Density Estimation to understand the spatial trends of attacking possessions in rugby league

论文作者

Sawczuk, Thomas, Palczewska, Anna, Jones, Ben, Palczewski, Jan

论文摘要

尽管有潜力为未来比赛提供对战术准备工作的重要见解,但很少有研究认为橄榄球联盟中团队进攻投篮的空间趋势。那些已经考虑过这些趋势的人使用了基于网格的聚合方法,这些方法对橄榄球联盟的比赛提供了离散的理解,但由于这项运动的动态性质,可能无法完全了解攻击财产的空间趋势。在这项研究中,我们使用内核密度估计(KDE)来不断地了解团队中橄榄球联盟中进攻财产的空间趋势。我们使用Wasserstein距离来了解团队之间的差异(即使用每个团队的所有数据)和团队内部(即使用单个团队的数据对不同的对手使用)。我们的结果表明,KDE能够在团队级别之间提供有趣的战术见解。此外,在团队层面上,结果能够显示出攻击球队的空间趋势模式,这是针对某些对手而不是其他对手的。结果可以帮助体育从业人员了解反对派团队以前的表现,并准备对抗他们的战术策略。

Despite having the potential to provide significant insights into tactical preparations for future matches, very few studies have considered the spatial trends of team attacking possessions in rugby league. Those which have considered these trends have used grid based aggregation methods, which provide a discrete understanding of rugby league match play but may fail to provide a complete understanding of the spatial trends of attacking possessions due to the dynamic nature of the sport. In this study, we use Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) to provide a continuous understanding of the spatial trends of attacking possessions in rugby league on a team by team basis. We use the Wasserstein distance to understand the differences between teams (i.e. using all of each team's data) and within teams (i.e. using a single team's data against different opponents). Our results show that KDEs are able to provide interesting tactical insights at the between team level. Furthermore, at the within team level, the results are able to show patterns of spatial trends for attacking teams, which are present against some opponents but not others. The results could help sports practitioners to understand opposition teams' previous performances and prepare tactical strategies for matches against them.

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