论文标题
静态贝叶斯模型的组件迭代集合kalman倒置具有未知的测量误差协方差
Component-wise iterative ensemble Kalman inversion for static Bayesian models with unknown measurement error covariance
论文作者
论文摘要
集合卡尔曼滤波器(ENKF)是高维线性高斯空间模型的卡尔曼滤波器的蒙特卡洛近似。还开发了ENKF方法,以推理具有高斯可能性的静态贝叶斯模型的参数推断,这种方式类似于类似的可能性调节顺序蒙特卡洛(SMC)。这些方法通常称为集合卡尔曼反转(EKI)。与SMC不同,如果可能性是线性高斯,而先验是高斯,则EKI的推论仅渐近公正。但是,EKI的运行速度明显更快。当前,EKI方法的一个很大的限制是,假定测量误差的协方差已完全知道。我们开发了一种新方法,我们称之为组件的迭代集合卡尔曼倒置(CW-ieki),该方法允许以可忽略的额外成本与模型参数一起推断协方差矩阵的元素。将这种新方法与三个不同的应用示例中的SMC进行了比较:土壤中氮矿化模型基于农业生产系统模拟器(APSIM),这是一种预测由于水温和光的压力而预测海草下降的模型,以及一种预测珊瑚钙化速率的模型。在所有这些示例中,我们发现CW-IEKI与SMC具有相对相似的预测性能,尽管不确定性更大,并且运行时间明显更快。
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a Monte Carlo approximation of the Kalman filter for high dimensional linear Gaussian state space models. EnKF methods have also been developed for parameter inference of static Bayesian models with a Gaussian likelihood, in a way that is analogous to likelihood tempering sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). These methods are commonly referred to as ensemble Kalman inversion (EKI). Unlike SMC, the inference from EKI is only asymptotically unbiased if the likelihood is linear Gaussian and the priors are Gaussian. However, EKI is significantly faster to run. Currently, a large limitation of EKI methods is that the covariance of the measurement error is assumed to be fully known. We develop a new method, which we call component-wise iterative ensemble Kalman inversion (CW-IEKI), that allows elements of the covariance matrix to be inferred alongside the model parameters at negligible extra cost. This novel method is compared to SMC on three different application examples: a model of nitrogen mineralisation in soil that is based on the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), a model predicting seagrass decline due to stress from water temperature and light, and a model predicting coral calcification rates. On all of these examples, we find that CW-IEKI has relatively similar predictive performance to SMC, albeit with greater uncertainty, and it has a significantly faster run time.