论文标题
通过反应扩散系统在流行病中建模非局部行为,该系统融合了沿网络的种群运动
Modeling nonlocal behavior in epidemics via a reaction-diffusion system incorporating population movement along a network
论文作者
论文摘要
始于2019年的Covid-19爆发,一直持续到撰写时间,这导致人们对传染病的数学建模产生了兴趣。最近的工作集中在部分微分方程(PDE)模型上,尤其是反应扩散模型,能够描述时空和时间上流行病的进展。这些研究表明,在描述和预测Covid-19的进展方面通常有希望的结果。但是,人们经常在短时间内长距离旅行,从而导致疾病非本地传播。这种传染性动力学并非仅通过扩散就可以很好地代表。相比之下,普通的微分方程(ODE)模型可以通过将不同的区域视为网络中的节点,可以轻松考虑这种行为,而边缘定义了非局部传输。在这项工作中,我们试图通过在反应扩散PDE系统中引入网络结构来结合这些建模范例。这是通过人口转移操作员的定义来实现的,该操作员将其脱节和潜在遥远的地理区域结合在一起,从而促进了他们之间的非本地人口运动。我们提供了分析结果,表明该操作员不会破坏系统的物理一致性或数学良好性,并通过数值实验验证这些结果。然后,我们使用该技术模拟了里约热内卢地区的共同199流行病,展示了其捕获重要的非局部行为的能力,同时保持了描述局部动力学的反应扩散模型的优势。
The outbreak of COVID-19, beginning in 2019 and continuing through the time of writing, has led to renewed interest in the mathematical modeling of infectious disease. Recent works have focused on partial differential equation (PDE) models, particularly reaction-diffusion models, able to describe the progression of an epidemic in both space and time. These studies have shown generally promising results in describing and predicting COVID-19 progression. However, people often travel long distances in short periods of time, leading to nonlocal transmission of the disease. Such contagion dynamics are not well-represented by diffusion alone. In contrast, ordinary differential equation (ODE) models may easily account for this behavior by considering disparate regions as nodes in a network, with the edges defining nonlocal transmission. In this work, we attempt to combine these modeling paradigms via the introduction of a network structure within a reaction-diffusion PDE system. This is achieved through the definition of a population-transfer operator, which couples disjoint and potentially distant geographic regions, facilitating nonlocal population movement between them. We provide analytical results demonstrating that this operator does not disrupt the physical consistency or mathematical well-posedness of the system, and verify these results through numerical experiments. We then use this technique to simulate the COVID-19 epidemic in the Brazilian region of Rio de Janeiro, showcasing its ability to capture important nonlocal behaviors, while maintaining the advantages of a reaction-diffusion model for describing local dynamics.