论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
UHI in Fortaleza and trends on screen-level air temperature and precipitation
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具，其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而，其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间，然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用，该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明，使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器，即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程，也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后，我们表明，当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声，甚至控制方程变得不准确时，我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测，从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
There is a consensus that Urban Heat Island phenomenon - UHI occurs in every large city. This effect is characterized by higher air temperatures in cities than in the neighboring countryside at night. However, to date, there has been no systematic study on the Fortaleza case, the Brazil's 5th largest city. By the comparison between screen-level air temperature measured by two automatic weather stations, one located in the city and the other in the neighboring region, this work shows the occurrence of the UHI in Fortaleza, even during the rainy season. In an attempt to find some effect of the UHI on precipitation (and vice-versa), historical series of air temperature and precipitation were analyzed from 1966 to 2020. Besides the considerable increase in air temperature over the years, a slight downward trend was observed in UHI and even more in accumulated precipitation between the hours of 15:00 and 21:00 (local time). However, one believes that these trends may be related to climate change at large scale rather than an urban scale.
