论文标题
在动态术语结构模型中未经许可的潜在风险
On Unspanned Latent Risks in Dynamic Term Structure Models
论文作者
论文摘要
我们探讨了从收益率曲线中隐藏的信息的重要性,并评估了贝叶斯投资者寻求预测超额债券收益并最大化其效用的实时贝叶斯投资者的宝贵风险。我们提出了一类新型的无套利的无套性动态术语结构模型(DTSM),该模型嵌入了风险规格的随机市场价格。我们开发了合适的顺序蒙特卡洛(SMC)推论和预测方案,该方案保证了参数和潜在状态的联合识别,并考虑了所有相关的不确定性。我们发现,潜在因素具有高于收益曲线的显着预测能力,从而改善了模型的样本外预测性能,尤其是在较短的成熟度时。最重要的是,他们能够利用从收益率曲线中隐藏的信息,并将明显的统计可预测性转化为样本外的显着实用性增长。与坡度风险相关的隐藏组件是反周期性的,并与实际活动联系在一起。
We explore the importance of information hidden from the yield curve and assess how valuable the unspanned risks are to a real-time Bayesian investor seeking to forecast excess bond returns and maximise her utility. We propose a novel class of arbitrage-free unspanned Dynamic Term Structure Models (DTSM), that embed a stochastic market price of risk specification. We develop a suitable Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) inferential and prediction scheme that guarantees joint identification of parameters and latent states and takes into account all relevant uncertainties. We find that latent factors contain significant predictive power above and beyond the yield curve, providing improvement to the out-of-sample predictive performance of models, especially at shorter maturities. Most importantly, they are capable of exploiting information hidden from the yield curve and translate the evident statistical predictability into significant utility gains, out-of-sample. The hidden component associated with slope risk is countercyclical and links with real activity.