论文标题
一个先进的时空卷积复发性神经网络,用于风暴激增预测
An advanced spatio-temporal convolutional recurrent neural network for storm surge predictions
论文作者
论文摘要
在这篇研究论文中,我们研究了人工神经网络模型基于风暴轨迹/大小/强度历史模拟风暴潮的能力,利用合成风暴模拟的数据库。传统上,计算流体动力学求解器被用来求解部分微分方程的风暴浪涌等式,并且通常非常昂贵。这项研究提出了一个可以预测风暴潮的神经网络模型,该模型由合成风暴模拟数据库所告知。该型号可以作为非常昂贵的CFD求解器的快速且负担得起的仿真器。神经网络模型经过用于驱动CFD求解器的风暴轨迹参数的训练,模型的输出是感兴趣的空间域内多个节点的预测风暴潮的时间序列演变。一旦训练了模型,就可以根据新的Storm Track输入来部署它以进行进一步的预测。开发的神经网络模型是一个时间序列模型,一种长期的短期记忆,是复发性神经网络的变化,它充满了卷积神经网络。卷积神经网络用于空间捕获数据的相关性。因此,数据的时间和空间相关性是通过上述模型ConvlstM模型的组合捕获的。由于问题是序列时间序列问题的序列,因此设计了编码器convlstm模型。在模型培训过程中,还采用了其他一些技术来丰富模型性能。结果表明,提出的卷积复发性神经网络的表现优于所检查的合成风暴数据库的高斯过程实现。
In this research paper, we study the capability of artificial neural network models to emulate storm surge based on the storm track/size/intensity history, leveraging a database of synthetic storm simulations. Traditionally, Computational Fluid Dynamics solvers are employed to numerically solve the storm surge governing equations that are Partial Differential Equations and are generally very costly to simulate. This study presents a neural network model that can predict storm surge, informed by a database of synthetic storm simulations. This model can serve as a fast and affordable emulator for the very expensive CFD solvers. The neural network model is trained with the storm track parameters used to drive the CFD solvers, and the output of the model is the time-series evolution of the predicted storm surge across multiple nodes within the spatial domain of interest. Once the model is trained, it can be deployed for further predictions based on new storm track inputs. The developed neural network model is a time-series model, a Long short-term memory, a variation of Recurrent Neural Network, which is enriched with Convolutional Neural Networks. The convolutional neural network is employed to capture the correlation of data spatially. Therefore, the temporal and spatial correlations of data are captured by the combination of the mentioned models, the ConvLSTM model. As the problem is a sequence to sequence time-series problem, an encoder-decoder ConvLSTM model is designed. Some other techniques in the process of model training are also employed to enrich the model performance. The results show the proposed convolutional recurrent neural network outperforms the Gaussian Process implementation for the examined synthetic storm database.