论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Navigation between initial and desired community states using shortcuts
论文作者
论文摘要
生态管理问题通常涉及从初始到所需的社区国家导航。我们询问是否可以使用各种成本的动作来实现导航，而不会增加物种的蛮力和删除物种的删除：添加/删除物种的少数个人，改变环境并等待。导航可以产生直接路径（单个动作序列）或快捷路径（成本低于直接路径的多个动作序列）。我们问（1）什么时候可以进行非汉堡导航？ （2）捷径是否存在，它们的特性是什么？ （3）启发式方法预测快捷方式存在？使用几个经验数据集，我们表明（1）仅在某些状态对之间进行非汉堡导航，（2）在许多状态对之间存在快捷方式； （3）丰度和丰富度的变化是快捷方式存在的最强预测指标，与数据集和算法选择无关。因此，状态图推出了隐藏的策略，以有效地在状态之间进行有效转移。
Ecological management problems often involve navigating from an initial to a desired community state. We ask whether navigation is possible without brute-force additions and deletions of species, using actions of varying costs: adding/deleting a small number of individuals of a species, changing the environment, and waiting. Navigation can yield direct paths (single sequence of actions) or shortcut paths (multiple sequences of actions with lower cost than a direct path). We ask (1) when is non-brute-force navigation possible?; (2) do shortcuts exist and what are their properties?; and (3) what heuristics predict shortcut existence? Using several empirical datasets, we show that (1) non-brute-force navigation is only possible between some state pairs, (2) shortcuts exist between many state pairs; and (3) changes in abundance and richness are the strongest predictors of shortcut existence, independent of dataset and algorithm choices. State diagrams thus unveil hidden strategies for efficiently shifting between states.
