论文标题
与异质通道的时间序列预测很少
Few-Shot Forecasting of Time-Series with Heterogeneous Channels
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
Learning complex time series forecasting models usually requires a large amount of data, as each model is trained from scratch for each task/data set. Leveraging learning experience with similar datasets is a well-established technique for classification problems called few-shot classification. However, existing approaches cannot be applied to time-series forecasting because i) multivariate time-series datasets have different channels and ii) forecasting is principally different from classification. In this paper we formalize the problem of few-shot forecasting of time-series with heterogeneous channels for the first time. Extending recent work on heterogeneous attributes in vector data, we develop a model composed of permutation-invariant deep set-blocks which incorporate a temporal embedding. We assemble the first meta-dataset of 40 multivariate time-series datasets and show through experiments that our model provides a good generalization, outperforming baselines carried over from simpler scenarios that either fail to learn across tasks or miss temporal information.