论文标题

部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测

A Unifying Framework for Some Directed Distances in Statistics

论文作者

Broniatowski, Michel, Stummer, Wolfgang

论文摘要

储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。

Density-based directed distances -- particularly known as divergences -- between probability distributions are widely used in statistics as well as in the adjacent research fields of information theory, artificial intelligence and machine learning. Prominent examples are the Kullback-Leibler information distance (relative entropy) which e.g. is closely connected to the omnipresent maximum likelihood estimation method, and Pearson's chisquare-distance which e.g. is used for the celebrated chisquare goodness-of-fit test. Another line of statistical inference is built upon distribution-function-based divergences such as e.g. the prominent (weighted versions of) Cramer-von Mises test statistics respectively Anderson-Darling test statistics which are frequently applied for goodness-of-fit investigations; some more recent methods deal with (other kinds of) cumulative paired divergences and closely related concepts. In this paper, we provide a general framework which covers in particular both the above-mentioned density-based and distribution-function-based divergence approaches; the dissimilarity of quantiles respectively of other statistical functionals will be included as well. From this framework, we structurally extract numerous classical and also state-of-the-art (including new) procedures. Furthermore, we deduce new concepts of dependence between random variables, as alternatives to the celebrated mutual information. Some variational representations are discussed, too.

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