论文标题
用于边界治疗效果的因果边缘多层
The Causal Marginal Polytope for Bounding Treatment Effects
论文作者
论文摘要
由于无法衡量的混杂,通常无法从假定模型中识别因果关系。然而,我们可以要求部分识别,这通常归结为找到与与编码结构假设兼容的所有解决方案得出的因果量的上和下限。得出此类界限的一种吸引人的方法是用约束的优化方法对其进行施放,该方法在与证据兼容的所有因果模型上搜索,如Balke和Pearl(1994)中的经典作品中所介绍的离散数据所述。尽管通过构造保证了紧密的界限,但它带来了巨大的计算挑战。为了解决这个问题,替代方案包括不能保证不紧张的算法,或通过对模型类引入限制。在本文中,我们介绍了一种新颖的替代方法:受信念传播的想法的启发,我们在没有构建全球因果模型的情况下在因果模型和数据的边际之间执行兼容性。我们称此本地一致的边际收集为因果边缘多层。随着全球独立性约束在考虑小小的可拖动边缘时的消失,这也导致了如何引起和表达因果知识的重新思考。我们提供了明确的算法和实施此想法,并通过数值实验评估了其实用性。
Due to unmeasured confounding, it is often not possible to identify causal effects from a postulated model. Nevertheless, we can ask for partial identification, which usually boils down to finding upper and lower bounds of a causal quantity of interest derived from all solutions compatible with the encoded structural assumptions. One appealing way to derive such bounds is by casting it in terms of a constrained optimization method that searches over all causal models compatible with evidence, as introduced in the classic work of Balke and Pearl (1994) for discrete data. Although by construction this guarantees tight bounds, it poses a formidable computational challenge. To cope with this issue, alternatives include algorithms that are not guaranteed to be tight, or by introducing restrictions on the class of models. In this paper, we introduce a novel alternative: inspired by ideas coming from belief propagation, we enforce compatibility between marginals of a causal model and data, without constructing a global causal model. We call this collection of locally consistent marginals the causal marginal polytope. As global independence constraints disappear when considering small dimensional tractable marginals, this also leads to a rethinking of how to elicit and express causal knowledge. We provide an explicit algorithm and implementation of this idea, and assess its practicality with numerical experiments.