论文标题
根据四个遥控指数，欧洲可再生能源产生的季节性预测
Seasonal prediction of renewable energy generation in Europe based on four teleconnection indices
论文作者
论文摘要
随着许多欧洲国家电力组合中的风能和太阳能的量增加，理解和预测多个时间尺度可再生能源产生的变化对于确保可靠的电力系统至关重要。在季节性尺度上，供应和需求之间的平衡主要取决于大规模的大气循环，这是由于气候变化和自然变异性而造成的。在这里，我们采用了四个远程连接指数，这些指数代表了广泛分离区域的大气条件之间的联系，以描述欧洲季节性规模的大规模循环。我们首次将每种远程连接与国家和区域层面的风和太阳能发电异常联系起来，我们表明，远程连接指数的动态预测允许以积极的技能水平预测在国家 /地区的可再生能源生成。该模型通过对远程连接的一般循环和状态的共同依赖来揭示了欧洲国家风和太阳能发电的共同性。
With growing amounts of wind and solar power in the electricity mix of many European countries, understanding and predicting variations of renewable energy generation at multiple timescales is crucial to ensure reliable electricity systems. At seasonal scale, the balance between supply and demand is mostly determined by the large-scale atmospheric circulation, which is uncertain due to climate change and natural variability. Here we employ four teleconnection indices, which represent a linkage between atmospheric conditions at widely separated regions, to describe the large-scale circulation at seasonal scale over Europe. For the first time, we relate each of the teleconnections to the wind and solar generation anomalies at country and regional level and we show that dynamical forecasts of the teleconnection indices allow predicting renewable generation at country level with positive skill levels. This model unveils the co-variability of wind and solar generation in European countries through its common dependence on the general circulation and the state of the teleconnections.
