论文标题

速度,质量和复杂决策的最佳时机:现场证据

Speed, Quality, and the Optimal Timing of Complex Decisions: Field Evidence

论文作者

Sunde, Uwe, Zegners, Dainis, Strittmatter, Anthony

论文摘要

本文介绍了对决策速度和决策质量之间的关系与认知要求的决策现实环境之间的关系的实证研究,其中决策时机是内源性的:专业国际象棋。基于将实际决策与使用国际象棋引擎人工智能构建的最佳动作的计算基准进行比较,逐个移动数据提供了有关决策时间和决策质量的详细且精确的信息。结果表明,更快的决策与更好的绩效有关。这些发现与程序决策模型(如漂移扩散模型)的预测一致,在这些决策模型中,决策者依次获取有关具有不确定估值的决策选择的信息。

This paper presents an empirical investigation of the relation between decision speed and decision quality for a real-world setting of cognitively-demanding decisions in which the timing of decisions is endogenous: professional chess. Move-by-move data provide exceptionally detailed and precise information about decision times and decision quality, based on a comparison of actual decisions to a computational benchmark of best moves constructed using the artificial intelligence of a chess engine. The results reveal that faster decisions are associated with better performance. The findings are consistent with the predictions of procedural decision models like drift-diffusion-models in which decision makers sequentially acquire information about decision alternatives with uncertain valuations.

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