论文标题
比特币采矿的动力
Dynamics of Bitcoin mining
论文作者
论文摘要
当比特币价格变化，采矿供应冲击，能源变化的价格或硬件技术不断发展时，采矿会发生什么？我们根据系统中的技术力量和激励措施给出精确的答案。然后，我们以这些动力为基础来考虑价值：采矿的成本和目的是什么，值得吗？它是否使用过多的能量，对环境不利吗？最终，我们将分析扩展到长期：在经济上是可行的吗？ 40年后，全球哈希率将是多少？挖掘如何受到计算和能源的限制的影响？从长远来看，它在身体上可持续吗？从第一原则中，我们得出了基本的规模不变的可行性约束，这使我们能够分析互锁的动态，找到关键不变性并以数学的方式回答这些问题。
What happens to mining when the Bitcoin price changes, when there are mining supply shocks, the price of energy changes, or hardware technology evolves? We give precise answers based on the technical forces and incentives in the system. We then build on these dynamics to consider value: what is the cost and purpose of mining, and is it worth it? Does it use too much energy, is it bad for the environment? Finally we extend our analysis to the long term: is mining economically feasible forever? What will the global hash rate be in 40 years? How is mining impacted by the limits of computation and energy? Is it physically sustainable in the long run? From first principles, we derive a fundamental scale-invariant feasibility constraint, which enables us to analyze the interlocking dynamics, find key invariants, and answer these questions mathematically.
