论文标题

均值的最大差异:无效强度和接近零结果的统计数据

The Most Difference in Means: A Statistic for the Strength of Null and Near-Zero Results

论文作者

Corliss, Bruce A., Brown, Taylor R., Zhang, Tingting, Janes, Kevin A., Shakeri, Heman, Bourne, Philip E.

论文摘要

统计不足并不暗示缺乏效果,但是科学家经常必须将无效结果用作可忽略的(接近零)效应大小的证据来伪造科学假设。这样做必须评估结果的无效强度,这被定义为可忽略的效果大小的证据。这样的评估将区分强烈的无效结果,该结果表明效果的大小可忽略不计,而弱的无效结果表明潜在效应大小范围很大。我们提出了平均值($Δ_M$)作为两样本统计量的最大差异,该统计量既可以量化零强度又可以对效果大小可忽略不计的假设检验。为了在解释结果时促进共识,我们的统计数据允许科学家得出结论,结果使用不同阈值的效果大小可忽略不计,而无需重新计算。为了帮助选择阈值,$Δ_M$也可以比较相关结果之间的无效强度。 $Δ_M$和$Δ_M$的相对形式在比较无效强度方面的其他候选统计量均优于其他候选统计。我们汇总了广泛相关的结果,并使用相对$Δ_M$来比较不同处理方法,测量方法和实验模型中的无效强度。报告相对$Δ_M$可以通过鼓励发布NULL和接近零结果来为文件抽屉问题提供技术解决方案。

Statistical insignificance does not suggest the absence of effect, yet scientists must often use null results as evidence of negligible (near-zero) effect size to falsify scientific hypotheses. Doing so must assess a result's null strength, defined as the evidence for a negligible effect size. Such an assessment would differentiate strong null results that suggest a negligible effect size from weak null results that suggest a broad range of potential effect sizes. We propose the most difference in means ($δ_M$) as a two-sample statistic that can both quantify null strength and perform a hypothesis test for negligible effect size. To facilitate consensus when interpreting results, our statistic allows scientists to conclude that a result has negligible effect size using different thresholds with no recalculation required. To assist with selecting a threshold, $δ_M$ can also compare null strength between related results. Both $δ_M$ and the relative form of $δ_M$ outperform other candidate statistics in comparing null strength. We compile broadly related results and use the relative $δ_M$ to compare null strength across different treatments, measurement methods, and experiment models. Reporting the relative $δ_M$ may provide a technical solution to the file drawer problem by encouraging the publication of null and near-zero results.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源