论文标题

分析网络干扰和不符合性的随机实验

Analysis of Randomized Experiments with Network Interference and Noncompliance

论文作者

Kim, Bora

论文摘要

随机实验已成为经济学的标准工具。在分析随机实验时,传统方法基于稳定的单位治疗值(sutva:\ cite {rubin})假设,该假设决定了个体之间没有干扰。但是,由于社会互动,一般平衡和/或外部性效应,SUTVA假设在许多应用中都无法持有。尽管在放松SUTVA假设方面取得了很多进展,但大多数文献仅考虑了具有完美遵守治疗作业的设置。但是,实际上,在实际治疗收据与治疗的分配不同的情况下,经常发生违规行为。在本文中,我们研究了具有网络干扰和不符合性的随机实验中的因果关系。允许在治疗选择阶段和结果实现阶段进行溢出。特别是,我们明确地将代理的治疗选择模型为二元游戏,这些游戏的信息不完整,导致均衡治疗选择概率会影响感兴趣的结果。结果进一步以随机系数模型为特征,以允许因果效应中的一般未观察到的异质性。在定义了感兴趣的因果参数之后,我们提出了一个简单的控制函数估计器,并在大型网络渐近学下得出其渐近特性。我们将方法应用于\ cite {dupas}的随机补贴程序,在该程序中,我们发现溢出对杀虫剂处理的床网的溢出作用的证据。最后,我们通过分析反事实补贴策略的影响来说明我们方法的有用性。

Randomized experiments have become a standard tool in economics. In analyzing randomized experiments, the traditional approach has been based on the Stable Unit Treatment Value (SUTVA: \cite{rubin}) assumption which dictates that there is no interference between individuals. However, the SUTVA assumption fails to hold in many applications due to social interaction, general equilibrium, and/or externality effects. While much progress has been made in relaxing the SUTVA assumption, most of this literature has only considered a setting with perfect compliance to treatment assignment. In practice, however, noncompliance occurs frequently where the actual treatment receipt is different from the assignment to the treatment. In this paper, we study causal effects in randomized experiments with network interference and noncompliance. Spillovers are allowed to occur at both treatment choice stage and outcome realization stage. In particular, we explicitly model treatment choices of agents as a binary game of incomplete information where resulting equilibrium treatment choice probabilities affect outcomes of interest. Outcomes are further characterized by a random coefficient model to allow for general unobserved heterogeneity in the causal effects. After defining our causal parameters of interest, we propose a simple control function estimator and derive its asymptotic properties under large-network asymptotics. We apply our methods to the randomized subsidy program of \cite{dupas} where we find evidence of spillover effects on both short-run and long-run adoption of insecticide-treated bed nets. Finally, we illustrate the usefulness of our methods by analyzing the impact of counterfactual subsidy policies.

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