论文标题
升级和covid-19锁定:英国消费者支出的区域恢复不平衡
Levelling Down and the COVID-19 Lockdowns: Uneven Regional Recovery in UK Consumer Spending
论文作者
论文摘要
我们表明,整个2020年下半年,英国消费者支出的恢复均不均。我们利用寓言数据:一种实时的消费数据来源,它是高度相关的英格兰银行和国家统计数据办公室的领先指标。英国的复苏对伦敦外部和南部周围的“家庭县”的重量很大。我们观察到强劲的在线支出增长在离线支出合同之间存在鲜明的对比。在伦敦外部和周边地区的“通勤腰带”地区以及高级第二家拥有的地区的“通勤腰带”地区的在线支出中,支出的恢复最强,那里从家里工作(包括在第二家房屋中工作)显着取代了支出的位置。在2020年11月,面临英国新的更严格的“第3层”限制(主要是中部地区和北部地区)面临的地区的同比支出增长,而面临限制性较小的“ Tier 2”(主要是伦敦和南部)的地区,比率降低了38.4%。这些模式在2020年11月施加了第二个国家锁定时进一步加剧了这些模式。为了防止这种共同19驱动的区域不平等现象变得持久,我们建议政府在2021年引入临时,区域性的干预措施。实时,区域数据的可用性使决策者能够有效地决定何时,何处以及如何实施这些区域干预措施,并能够快速评估其有效性,以便将其远离或删除其有效性,是否可以进行修改或删除。
We show the recovery in consumer spending in the United Kingdom through the second half of 2020 is unevenly distributed across regions. We utilise Fable Data: a real-time source of consumption data that is a highly correlated, leading indicator of Bank of England and Office for National Statistics data. The UK's recovery is heavily weighted towards the "home counties" around outer London and the South. We observe a stark contrast between strong online spending growth while offline spending contracts. The strongest recovery in spending is seen in online spending in the "commuter belt" areas in outer London and the surrounding localities and also in areas of high second home ownership, where working from home (including working from second homes) has significantly displaced the location of spending. Year-on-year spending growth in November 2020 in localities facing the UK's new tighter "Tier 3" restrictions (mostly the midlands and northern areas) was 38.4% lower compared with areas facing the less restrictive "Tier 2" (mostly London and the South). These patterns had been further exacerbated during November 2020 when a second national lockdown was imposed. To prevent such COVID-19-driven regional inequalities from becoming persistent we propose governments introduce temporary, regionally-targeted interventions in 2021. The availability of real-time, regional data enables policymakers to efficiently decide when, where and how to implement such regional interventions and to be able to rapidly evaluate their effectiveness to consider whether to expand, modify or remove them.