论文标题
预测CAISO系统中的每日初级三小时净负荷坡道
Forecasting Daily Primary Three-Hour Net Load Ramps in the CAISO System
论文作者
论文摘要
可变能源的加深渗透为系统操作员（SOS）带来了前所未有的挑战。值得特别关注的问题是急剧的净负荷坡道，它要求SOS具有可支配的灵活能力，以便始终保持供求平衡。在明智的采购和部署灵活能力中，一种预测净负荷坡道的工具可能对SOS有很大帮助。为此，我们提出了一种方法，以预测每日初级三小时净负荷坡道的幅度和开始时间。我们进行了广泛的分析，以确定影响净负荷的因素并利用已确定的因素，以开发一种利用长短期记忆模型的预测方法。我们使用基于各种评估指标的选定基准进行了比较评估来证明所提出的方法对CAISO系统的有效性。
The deepening penetration of variable energy resources creates unprecedented challenges for system operators (SOs). An issue that merits special attention is the precipitous net load ramps, which require SOs to have flexible capacity at their disposal so as to maintain the supply-demand balance at all times. In the judicious procurement and deployment of flexible capacity, a tool that forecasts net load ramps may be of great assistance to SOs. To this end, we propose a methodology to forecast the magnitude and start time of daily primary three-hour net load ramps. We perform an extensive analysis so as to identify the factors that influence net load and draw on the identified factors to develop a forecasting methodology that harnesses the long short-term memory model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology on the CAISO system using comparative assessments with selected benchmarks based on various evaluation metrics.
