论文标题
CONS {é} Quences du Changement Climatique pour les alladies {à}传输矢量vectorielle et actument tabsulance de personnes
Cons{é}quences du changement climatique pour les maladies {à} transmission vectorielle et impact en assurance de personnes
论文作者
论文摘要
气候变化在很大程度上与人类活动有关，已经对我们的社会产生了相当大的影响。根据目前的趋势，预计在未来几十年中，气候变化将加速。除了对自然灾害（洪水，飓风等）的影响之外，气候变化可能会对人类的生活和健康产生灾难性的后果。关注点之一是蚊子传播的病毒传播的增加。实际上，温度上升对生态系统中蚊子的生存能力有直接的积极影响，从而导致其丰度，从而导致人群暴露于这些病原体。这项研究量化了全球变暖对法国大都会伊蚊传播病毒流行风险的后果。这款蚊子是登革热，基孔肯亚和寨卡病毒等的媒介，等于2004年，该蚊子于2004年到达法国大陆，此后遍布全国。得益于以前建立的蚊子存在可能性与平均温度与数学模型相结合之间的关联，流行病的可能性与在每个部门的一个季节中可能被感染和死亡的人数估计。如果法国都会大都市的异质性高度，那么到2040年，每年可能会有近2,000人死亡。
Climate change, which is largely linked to human activities, is already having a considerable impact on our societies. Based on current trends, climate change is expected to accelerate in the coming decades. Beyond its impact on the pace of natural disasters (floods, hurricanes, etc.), climate change may have catastrophic consequences for human life and health. One of the concerns is the increase in the transmission of viruses spread by mosquitoes. Indeed, rising temperatures have a direct positive impact on the viability of mosquitoes in ecosystems, leading to their abundance and thus the risk of exposure of human populations to these pathogens. This study quantifies the consequences of global warming on the risk of epidemics of viruses transmitted by the Aedes Albopictus mosquito in metropolitan France. This mosquito, which is a vector for the Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika viruses, among others, arrived in mainland France in 2004 and has since spread throughout the country. Thanks to the association previously established between the probability of the presence of the mosquito and the average temperature combined with a mathematical model, the probability of an epidemic and the number of people who could be infected and die during a season in each department are estimated. If there is a high degree of heterogeneity in metropolitan France, nearly 2,000 deaths per year could be expected by 2040.
