论文标题
企业网络中的平衡动力和过度波动
Out-of-Equilibrium Dynamics and Excess Volatility in Firm Networks
论文作者
论文摘要
我们研究了投入输出网络可以动态实现竞争均衡的条件,在这种情况下,市场清晰,利润为零。我们将经典的公司网络模型赋予最小的动力学规则,以减少供需失衡和多余的利润。我们表明,随着系统接近不稳定点,达到无限的时间所需的时间超出了霍金斯 - 史密斯条件的侵犯,并且竞争平衡不再是可接受的。我们认为,这种缓慢的动力学是通过累积和扩增外源性冲击的来源。在我们的最小模型(例如因果关系或库存管理)中不存在基本的物理约束,我们提出了一个动态一致的模型,以显示各种现象。竞争平衡只能在一段时间后以及在某些受限制的参数空间区域内达到,在此之外,人们观察到自发的周期性和混乱动态,让人联想到实际的业务周期。这表明,在纯粹的内源性波动方面,对多波动性过剩的替代解释。发现量表的回报减少和商品的易腐烂性可减轻趋于平衡的收敛性。
We study the conditions under which input-output networks can dynamically attain a competitive equilibrium, where markets clear and profits are zero. We endow a classical firm network model with minimal dynamical rules that reduce supply/demand imbalances and excess profits. We show that the time needed to reach equilibrium diverges to infinity as the system approaches an instability point beyond which the Hawkins-Simons condition is violated and competitive equilibrium is no longer admissible. We argue that such slow dynamics is a source of excess volatility, through accumulation and amplification of exogenous shocks. Factoring in essential physical constraints absent in our minimal model, such as causality or inventory management, we then propose a dynamically consistent model that displays a rich variety of phenomena. Competitive equilibrium can only be reached after some time and within some restricted region of parameter space, outside of which one observes spontaneous periodic and chaotic dynamics, reminiscent of real business cycles. This suggests an alternative explanation of excess volatility in terms of purely endogenous fluctuations. Diminishing return to scale and increased perishability of goods are found to ease convergence towards equilibrium.