论文标题
使用其与意大利covid-19数据的双倍时间和应用程序的关系，简化了有效复制号$ r_t $的简化估计值
A simplified estimate of the Effective Reproduction Number $R_t$ using its relation with the doubling time and application to Italian COVID-19 data
论文作者
论文摘要
提出了一种计算$ r_t $的简化方法，即有效的复制编号。该方法将$ R_T $的值与局部指数拟合执行的加倍时间的估计相关联。条件$ r_t = 1 $对应于等于零或等效的无限加倍时间的增长率。考虑了有关生成时间概率分布的不同假设。如果生成时间遵循伽马分布，则会提出一个简单的分析解决方案。
A simplified method to compute $R_t$, the Effective Reproduction Number, is presented. The method relates the value of $R_t$ to the estimation of the doubling time performed with a local exponential fit. The condition $R_t = 1$ corresponds to a growth rate equal to zero or equivalently an infinite doubling time. Different assumptions on the probability distribution of the generation time are considered. A simple analytical solution is presented in case the generation time follows a gamma distribution.
