论文标题
使用二次Poisson多项式回归的脚趾孔注射热恢复预测和建模
Toe-Heal-Air-Injection Thermal Recovery Production Prediction and Modelling Using Quadratic Poisson Polynomial Regression
论文作者
论文摘要
这篇研究论文探讨了仅使用储层温度来预测脚趾 - 空气注射（Thai）增强石油回收过程中的油气产量的多变量回归模型的应用。本文通过使用二级二次多项式讨论了热电偶之间统计相互作用的影响，这表明产生的预测准确性很高。从统计学上讲，热电偶之间的相互作用包括较大储层区域的温度，从而改善了预测模型。两个热电偶的相互作用可以解释为燃烧区的温度梯度，因为在泰国运营生命周期中向前移动。 包括相互作用在内的二级多项式回归显示，与简单回归模型相比，石油和天然气生产的主要预测改善。 Poisson回归的应用略有提高了石油生产的预测准确性，并且在改善天然气生产预测方面的有效性较差。二次泊松回归模型由于泊松概率分布的性质，对石油和气体生产值显示了现实的生产预测方法，这对于速率和计数值不合格。
This research paper explores application of multivariable regression models using only reservoir temperatures for predicting oil and gas production in a Toe-Heal-Air-Injection (THAI) enhanced oil recovery process. This paper discusses effects of statistical interaction between thermocouples by using second degree quadratic polynomials, which showed significant production forecast accuracy. Interactions among thermocouples statistically include temperature of larger reservoir areas, hence improving the predictive models. The interaction of two thermocouples can be interpreted as temperature gradient of combustion zone as moving forward during THAI operations life cycle. Second degree polynomial regression including interactions showed major prediction improvement for both oil and natural gas productions compare to simple regression models. Application of Poisson regression slightly improved prediction accuracy for oil production and was less effective on improving natural gas production predictions. Quadratic Poisson regression models showed realistic production prediction method for both oil and gas production values, due to the nature of Poisson probability distribution which is non-negative for rates and count values.
