论文标题
建模在乘车网络中传播的病毒
Modelling virus spreading in ride-pooling networks
论文作者
论文摘要
城市流动性需要替代的可持续旅行模式,以使我们的大流行城市继续前进。乘车行动是由多个旅行者共享的单车,不仅吸引了出行平台及其旅行者,而且还吸引了促进城市出行系统的可持续性。然而,鉴于与COVID-19大流行有关的个人和公共卫生风险考虑因素,乘车行驶的潜力是安全有效的替代方案。为了回答这一点,我们将流行病学和行为共享性模型结合在一起,以检查乘车旅行者之间的传播以及对阿姆斯特丹的申请。发现发现是毁灭性的,只有少数最初感染的旅行者将病毒传播给数百名乘车用户。没有干预,乘车系统可能会大大导致病毒扩散。尽管如此,我们确定了一种有效的控制措施,可以在爆发前停止扩散(在50次而不是800个感染)之前,而无需牺牲通过合并而实现的效率。固定匹配的匹配者之间的匹配与原本密集的接触网络断开,将病毒封装在小社区中并防止爆发。
Urban mobility needs alternative sustainable travel modes to keep our pandemic cities in motion. Ride-pooling, where a single vehicle is shared by more than one traveller, is not only appealing for mobility platforms and their travellers, but also for promoting the sustainability of urban mobility systems. Yet, the potential of ride-pooling rides to serve as a safe and effective alternative given the personal and public health risks considerations associated with the COVID-19 pandemic is hitherto unknown. To answer this, we combine epidemiological and behavioural shareability models to examine spreading among ride-pooling travellers, with an application for Amsterdam. Findings are at first sight devastating, with only few initially infected travellers needed to spread the virus to hundreds of ride-pooling users. Without intervention, ride-pooling system may substantially contribute to virus spreading. Notwithstanding, we identify an effective control measure allowing to halt the spreading before the outbreaks (at 50 instead of 800 infections) without sacrificing the efficiency achieved by pooling. Fixed matches among co-travellers disconnect the otherwise dense contact network, encapsulating the virus in small communities and preventing the outbreaks.