论文标题
关于在出现早期探测活动区域的耀斑生产力的可能性
On the possibility to probe the flare productivity of an active region on the early stage of emergence
论文作者
论文摘要
一个长期存在的问题是在早期出现阶段，预测活性区域（AR）的未来耀斑生产力。这项研究的目的是探测光球磁场的两个参数，均在AR的出现阶段得出，并将其与发达的AR的耀斑生产力进行比较。参数为：（i）出现阶段的磁功率谱（频谱的斜率）的指数，以及（ii）磁通出现速率。对243种新兴AR的分析表明，磁力指数从静sun区域的典型值增加到一天之内成熟AR的典型值，而出现持续了几天。通常，在增加之后，功率指数的值围绕某些平均值围绕某些平均值起伏，波动的数量比出现在出现期间的功率指数的增长少几次。对于34个耀斑生产性AR的子集，我们发现在出现阶段的功率谱指数与耀斑指数阶段与圆盘上的整个间隔中得出的相关性之间没有相关性。同时，通量出现速率与耀斑指数良好相关（Pearson的相关系数为0.74）。我们得出的结论是，高通量出现率是AR在将来产生强烈耀斑的必要条件，因此，可以使用通量出现率来探测AR的未来耀斑生产力。
A long-standing problem is to predict the future flare productivity of an active region (AR) when it is on the stage of early emergence. The aim of this study is to probe two parameters of the photospheric magnetic field, both derived during the emergence phase of an AR, and to compare them with the flare productivity of the well-developed AR. The parameters are: (i) the index of the magnetic power spectrum (the slope of the spectrum) on the stage of emergence, and (ii) the flux emergence rate. Analysis of 243 emerging ARs showed that the magnetic power index increases from values typical for quiet-Sun regions to the values typical for mature ARs within a day while the emergence proceeds for several days; frequently, after the increase, the value of the power index undulates around some mean value with fluctuations being several time less than the growth of the power index during the emergence onset. For a subset of 34 flare-productive ARs we found no correlation between the power spectrum index at the stage of emergence and flare index derived from the entire interval of the AR's presence on the disc. At the same time, the flux emergence rate correlates well with the flare index (the Pearson's correlation coefficient is 0.74). We conclude that high flux emergence rate is a necessary condition for an AR to produce strong flares in the future, and so, the flux emergence rate can be used to probe the future flare productivity of the AR.
