论文标题
整个空间转换率预测的延迟反馈建模
Delayed Feedback Modeling for the Entire Space Conversion Rate Prediction
论文作者
论文摘要
精确估算点击后转换率(CVR)对于电子商务至关重要。但是,CVR预测通常在实践中面临三个主要挑战:i)数据稀疏性:与印象相比,转换样本通常非常稀缺; ii)样本选择偏见:传统的CVR模型通过点击印象训练,同时推断所有印象的整个空间; iii)延迟反馈:由于点击发生相对较长且随机延迟,才能观察到许多转换,从而导致训练期间许多假阴性标签。先前的研究主要集中在一个或两个问题上,而无视其他问题。在本文中,我们提出了一个新型的神经网络框架ESDF,以同时解决以上三个挑战。与现有方法不同,ESDF从整个空间的角度对CVR预测进行了建模,并结合了用户顺序行为模式和时间延迟因子的优势。具体而言,ESDF利用用户动作在整个空间上的顺序行为,并以所有印象来减轻样本选择偏差问题。通过共享CTR和CVR网络之间的嵌入参数,数据稀疏问题得到了极大的解释。与常规的延迟反馈方法不同,ESDF对延迟分布没有任何特殊假设。我们将延迟时间逐日插槽离散,并使用深层神经网络基于生存分析进行建模,这更实用,适合工业情况。进行了广泛的实验来评估我们方法的有效性。据我们所知,ESDF是联合解决上述三个挑战在CVR预测领域的尝试。
Estimating post-click conversion rate (CVR) accurately is crucial in E-commerce. However, CVR prediction usually suffers from three major challenges in practice: i) data sparsity: compared with impressions, conversion samples are often extremely scarce; ii) sample selection bias: conventional CVR models are trained with clicked impressions while making inference on the entire space of all impressions; iii) delayed feedback: many conversions can only be observed after a relatively long and random delay since clicks happened, resulting in many false negative labels during training. Previous studies mainly focus on one or two issues while ignoring the others. In this paper, we propose a novel neural network framework ESDF to tackle the above three challenges simultaneously. Unlike existing methods, ESDF models the CVR prediction from a perspective of entire space, and combines the advantage of user sequential behavior pattern and the time delay factor. Specifically, ESDF utilizes sequential behavior of user actions on the entire space with all impressions to alleviate the sample selection bias problem. By sharing the embedding parameters between CTR and CVR networks, data sparsity problem is greatly relieved. Different from conventional delayed feedback methods, ESDF does not make any special assumption about the delay distribution. We discretize the delay time by day slot and model the probability based on survival analysis with deep neural network, which is more practical and suitable for industrial situations. Extensive experiments are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of our method. To the best of our knowledge, ESDF is the first attempt to unitedly solve the above three challenges in CVR prediction area.