论文标题
对足球财产的瞬时预期价值进行细粒度评估的框架
A framework for the fine-grained evaluation of the instantaneous expected value of soccer possessions
论文作者
论文摘要
足球财产的预期拥有价值（EPV）代表了在任何时候都有球队得分或接收下一个进球的可能性。通过将EPV分解为单独估计的一系列子组件，我们开发了一个全面的分析框架，从而为足球从业人员提供了评估观察到和潜在动作的影响的能力。我们表明，我们可以为EPV的所有组成部分获得校准模型，包括一组尚未在足球中进行的问题。我们从一系列深层神经网络体系结构中产生了视觉可解剖的概率表面，这些概率是从低级时空数据中学习的。此外，我们提出了一系列新颖的实用应用，为教练提供了对特定游戏情况的丰富解释。
The expected possession value (EPV) of a soccer possession represents the likelihood of a team scoring or receiving the next goal at any time instance. By decomposing the EPV into a series of subcomponents that are estimated separately, we develop a comprehensive analysis framework providing soccer practitioners with the ability to evaluate the impact of both observed and potential actions. We show we can obtain calibrated models for all the components of EPV, including a set of yet-unexplored problems in soccer. We produce visually-interpretable probability surfaces for potential passes from a series of deep neural network architectures that learn from low-level spatiotemporal data. Additionally, we present a series of novel practical applications providing coaches with an enriched interpretation of specific game situations.
