论文标题
比利时的Covid-19的更改点检测
Change point detection for COVID-19 excess deaths in Belgium
论文作者
论文摘要
2019年底，Covid-19已成为对全球人民的公共卫生威胁。除了对Covid-19的阳性测试阳性的死亡之外，许多其他人还死于与Covid-19的原因间接相关的原因。因此，COVID-19证实死亡低估了大流行对社会的影响。取而代之的是，“多余死亡”的度量是评估流行病规模和制定课程的更客观和可比较的方法。分析COVID-19的影响的一个常见实际问题是确定“旋转前”期间和``covid''时期。我们应用一种变更点检测方法，使用比利时过量死亡来识别任何变更点。
Emerging at the end of 2019, COVID-19 has become a public health threat to people worldwide. Apart from the deaths who tested positive for COVID-19, many others have died from causes indirectly related to COVID-19. Therefore, the COVID-19 confirmed deaths underestimate the influence of the pandemic on the society; instead, the measure of `excess deaths' is a more objective and comparable way to assess the scale of the epidemic and formulate lessons. One common practical issue in analyzing the impact of COVID-19 is to determine the `pre-COVID-19' period and the `post-COVID-19' period. We apply a change point detection method to identify any change points using the excess deaths in Belgium.
