论文标题

美国城市和郊区的自杀差异:使用数据驱动的预测方法对社会环境因素进行比较评估

Suicide disparities across urban and suburban areas in the U.S.: A comparative assessment of socio-environmental factors using a data-driven predictive approach

论文作者

Mukherjee, Sayanti, Wei, Zhiyuan

论文摘要

城市/郊区/农村地区自杀率的差异正在增长,在美国,农村地区通常见证了自杀率较高的率,但先前的研究通常忽略了社会环境因素对自杀率及其区域差异的影响。为了解决这些差距,我们提出了一个整体数据驱动的框架,以模拟自杀率(人口,社会经济)和环境(气候)因素的关联,并研究城市和郊区各地的差异。利用2000--2017的县级自杀数据以及社会环境特征,我们培训,测试和验证了一系列先进的统计学习算法,以识别,评估和预测关键的社会环境因素对自杀率的影响。随机森林在合适性和预测精度方面优于所有其他模型,并被选为最终模型。我们的结果表明,人口统计数据与城市自杀率和郊区自杀率均显着相关。我们发现,与城市社区相比,郊区人口更容易自杀,郊区自杀率对失业率和中位家庭收入特别敏感。我们的分析表明,自杀死亡率与气候相关,表明城市自杀率对较高的温度,季节性加热的天日和降水更为敏感,而郊区的自杀率仅对季节性冷却度敏感。这项工作为不同城市化地区的关键社会环境因素和自杀之间的相互作用提供了更深入的见解,并可以帮助公共卫生机构制定预防自杀策略,以减少自杀的风险日益增长。

Disparity in suicide rates between urban and suburban/rural areas is growing, with rural areas typically witnessing higher suicide rates in the U.S. However, previous studies often ignored the effect of socio-environmental factors on the suicide rates and its regional disparity. To address these gaps, we propose a holistic data-driven framework to model the associations of social (demographic, socioeconomic) and environmental (climate) factors on suicide rates, and study the disparities across urban and suburban areas. Leveraging the county-level suicide data from 2000--2017 along with the socio-environmental features, we trained, tested and validated a suite of advanced statistical learning algorithms to identify, assess and predict the influence of key socio-environmental factors on suicide rates. Random forest outperformed all other models in terms of goodness-of-fit and predictive accuracy, and selected as the final model to make inferences. Our results indicate that population demographics is significantly associated with both urban and suburban suicide rates. We found that suburban population is more vulnerable to suicides compared to urban communities, with suburban suicide rate being particularly sensitive to unemployment rate and median household income. Our analysis revealed that suicide mortality is correlated to climate, showing that urban suicide rate is more sensitive to higher temperatures, seasonal-heating-degree-days and precipitation, while suburban suicide rate is sensitive to only seasonal-cooling-degree-days. This work provides deeper insights on interactions between key socio-environmental factors and suicides across different urbanized areas, and can help the public health agencies develop suicide prevention strategies to reduce the growing risk of suicides.

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